Climate change reshapes where people live, altering both the desire and the ability to move. When heat waves, droughts, and floods strike, not everyone responds the same way. A study in Nature Communications shows that age and education strongly influence who migrates and who remains.

The research reveals a complex story: extreme weather pushes some groups to leave while trapping others in place. This challenges the image of mass waves of climate refugees often evoked in debates.

Study lead author Hélène Benveniste is an assistant professor of environmental social sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

“Weather extremes can both incentivize people to move away and increase the number of people who don’t have the ability to migrate,” said Professor Benveniste.

“Our research shows that migration in response to weather, just like migration decisions in general, is highly dependent upon demographic characteristics.”

Climate and migration patterns

Earlier research often gave mixed signals on whether women, men, or people with different education levels were more likely to migrate under extreme weather.

By analyzing detailed global migration records, Benveniste and colleagues showed that these contradictions arise because responses vary sharply across demographics and local climates.

The team examined more than 125,000 cross-border cases and nearly half a million within-country moves. They categorized migrants by age, education, and sex, and then connected these groups to weather records like temperature and soil moisture.

This approach revealed that migration is best understood not by how many move, but by who does.

Trapped and cannot migrate

The new model predicted migration up to 12 times better than previous approaches. Yet weather alone explained only a small fraction of migration, since economics, politics, and social ties also weigh heavily.

Still, striking demographic patterns emerged. Children under 15 were less likely to migrate following extreme heat. Older adults with little education, however, were more likely to leave, while highly educated adults showed little change.

“Our results indicate that many among those most likely to suffer from climate change impacts will not be able to get out of harm’s way,” noted the researchers.

This creates a “double penalty,” where people with the fewest resources both struggle to adapt locally and lose migration as an option.

Local climate and migration

Climate zones shape how weather influences moves within countries. In tropical regions, hotter days increased migration among educated adults but had little effect on those with less schooling.

In arid regions, dry spells spurred moves especially among the least educated, while heavy rains or flooding also triggered departures.

The analysis highlights how vulnerability interacts with opportunity. Those reliant on agriculture, often with little education, may feel a strong push to leave during drought, yet lack the means to relocate across borders. Instead, they may move to nearby towns or cities when conditions deteriorate.

Who migrates and who doesn’t

The study emphasizes that climate change will not necessarily unleash waves of migrants. Instead, it will reshape the composition of those who move.

Projections suggest that by the end of the century, older adults with little education may migrate across borders at higher rates, while the youngest and least educated will migrate less.

This shift means that population averages mask the real story: dramatic differences between groups cancel each other out. Policies that only consider total migration numbers risk overlooking those most affected.

Responses to long-term changes

The researchers caution that responses to long-term climate change may differ from reactions to short-term weather.

Communities may adapt with new crops or technologies, reducing the need to move. Yet if conditions outpace these adaptations, migration pressures could rise again.

Destination conditions also matter. High heat in receiving countries can discourage movement for some groups, while wetter conditions may attract others, especially educated adults.

Household factors, such as whether people have children, further influence decisions, with parents often less likely to move.

Preparing for future climate shocks

Policymakers often prepare for large waves of climate refugees. But the evidence points to a subtler reality: climate change will alter who is able to move, while many vulnerable groups remain trapped.

“We hope that policymakers use these results as a basis to more squarely address the needs of different demographic groups,” Benveniste said. “We need to answer the needs not just of the people who move, but also those who are moving less.”

The science is clear: climate-driven migration is less about numbers and more about people. Understanding who moves, who stays, and why is key to preparing for a warmer, less predictable world.

The study is published in the journal Nature Communications.

—–

Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates. 

Check us out on EarthSnap, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls and Earth.com.

—–